International trade development trends

Economic globalization, primarily driven by global trade, has profoundly impacted China's economic and business development. Current trends and characteristics of international trade can be summarized in six aspects: 1. International trade has entered a new period of rapid growth, with trade playing an increasingly significant role in driving economic growth; 2. The trade pattern centered on developed countries remains unchanged, with China emerging as a new force in international trade growth; 3. The multilateral trading system faces new challenges, while regional economic cooperation is booming globally; 4. The structure of international trade is becoming more advanced, with the development of service trade and technology trade gaining momentum; 5. The trend of trade and investment integration is evident, with multinational corporations playing an increasingly dominant role in global trade; 6. The struggle between trade liberalization and protectionism is intensifying, with various trade barriers emerging.

Economic globalization, primarily driven by global trade, has profoundly impacted China's economic and business development. In-depth analysis and understanding of the current trends and characteristics of international trade are crucial for making informed decisions, participating in international economic cooperation and competition on a larger scale, broader scope, and higher level, and seizing the opportunities presented by economic globalization.

(1) International trade has entered a new period of rapid growth, with trade playing an increasingly significant role in driving economic growth

With the relatively rapid growth of the world economy and the deepening of economic globalization, international trade growth has accelerated significantly and has entered a new period of rapid growth. In 2004, global merchandise trade grew nominally by 21%, reaching a 25-year high. Driven by strong world economic growth, robust international market demand for energy and raw materials, and the depreciation of the US dollar, global trade in goods and services has shown rapid growth. The rapid growth of global trade is both a result of technological progress, productivity improvements, and deeper international division of labor, and it has also promoted world production. Since the 1990s, the growth rate of international trade has consistently exceeded the growth rate of world production, leading to a rise in the foreign trade dependence of countries worldwide to varying degrees.

(2) The trade pattern centered on developed countries remains unchanged, with China emerging as a new force in international trade growth

The three major economies of the US, Europe, and Japan are major forces in the world economy and also play a leading role in international trade. Currently, developed countries account for over 70% of world merchandise exports and over 90% of service trade. More importantly, developed countries dominate the international trade order through regional trade cooperation and control of the multilateral trading system, and they obtain most of the trade benefits in international exchanges.

China has been a prominent "highlight" in the recent growth of international trade, as evidenced by its continuously rising share and ranking in global trade volume, and its increasingly significant contribution to the growth of global trade. In 2004, China's foreign trade volume reached US$1154.8 billion, surpassing Japan to become the third largest trading nation after the United States and Germany, accounting for 6.4% and 20% of the global merchandise trade volume and increment, respectively.

(3) The multilateral trading system faces new challenges, while regional economic cooperation is booming globally

On August 1, 2004, the 147 members of the World Trade Organization reached an agreement on the framework for a new round of multilateral trade negotiations, but the agreement's content was rather general and broad, and members still had significant disagreements on issues such as agriculture and non-agricultural market access. 2005 was a crucial year for the Doha Round negotiations, with developed and developing members negotiating the substantive content of key issues at the December ministerial conference in Hong Kong. It is noteworthy that due to the diversity and overlapping membership of various regional trade agreements, some trade agreements have gone beyond the traditional scope of reducing trade and investment barriers, which has had a certain impact on the multilateral trading system.

Meanwhile, regional economic cooperation, primarily in the form of regional trade arrangements, is accelerating and exhibiting several new trends: Firstly, regional trade arrangements are developing rapidly. Secondly, major trading powers are pursuing leadership in regional trade arrangements. Thirdly, the proportion of trade among members of regional trade arrangements is further increasing. In 2004, the total volume of intra-regional trade accounted for over 50% of total international trade. Fourthly, competition between countries is shifting to competition between regional economic blocs. Regional trade arrangements have become a strategic means for countries to compete for market resources, expand development space, and enhance their international standing.

(4) The structure of international trade is becoming more advanced, with the development of service trade and technology trade gaining momentum

The advancement of the international trade structure and the upgrading of the industrial structure are mutually supportive, and their changing trends have two prominent characteristics: Firstly, with the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure of various countries, global service trade has developed rapidly. In the past 20 years, the scale of international service trade has expanded from US$360 billion in 1980 to US$2.1 trillion today, accounting for 19% of global trade. In terms of industry structure, service trade is increasingly shifting towards emerging service industries such as finance, insurance, telecommunications, information, and consulting, while the share of traditional transportation and tourism industries continues to decline; in terms of regional distribution, the share of developing countries in service trade continues to expand, with particularly significant growth in East Asia. Secondly, the position of high-tech products in manufactured goods trade has greatly improved, especially with the fastest growth in exports of information and communication technology products. At the same time, as multinational corporations are transferring high-tech industries, represented by information technology, to developing countries, the share of developing countries' exports of technology-intensive products in the global market has rapidly increased in recent years.